Looking ahead

Well, the bubble officially burst last night - the Titans are now eliminated from the 2009 CCIW conference tournament field. In the end, I think it simply comes down to a young team just overmatched too many times in league play by older, stronger, more experienced teams.

The future is very bright though, Titan fans. Consider...

2009-10 Returning Points/Rebounds/Assists (CCIW-only stats through 2/14):
(listed in order of most likely 2009 finish)

Wheaton – 47% points, 58% rebounds, 72% assists
Elmhurst – 47% points, 53% rebounds, 70% assists
North Central – 30% points, 38% rebounds, 23% assists
Augustana – 36% points, 40% rebounds, 43% assists
Carthage – 90% points, 78% rebounds, 78% assists
Illinois Wesleyan – 90% points, 94% rebounds, 98% assists
Millikin – 61% points, 74% rebounds, 57% assists
North Park – 98% points, 95% rebounds, 99% assists

This year, the four oldest teams will probably finish in the upper half of the league, while the 4 youngest will probably finish in the bottom half. Next year and beyond, IWU will get back to putting veteran teams on the floor.

This IWU nucleus will have to make a big improvement on the defensive side of the ball, however. I'm willing chalk a lot of this year's struggles in stopping opponents to the fact that most other CCIW teams are bigger and stronger (because they're older). But there is going to have to be a committment from every single player to doing whatever it takes to become a good defensive team next year. That's what will determine how good this group becomes.

Still two games left - it'd be great to finish strong @ Millikin and then at home vs Augie.

Still in it...

In looking at the standings and remaining games, it looks to me like IWU's road to the conference tournament is a little more reasonable than I thought. If the Titans win out, I believe they have a pretty good chance of winning an 8-6 tie-breaker.

Wheaton 8-3
Augustana 8-4
Elmhurst 7-4
North Central 7-4
Carthage 6-5
Illinois Wesleyan 5-6
Millikin 4-7
North Park 0-12

Remaining schedules:

Wheaton - @ IWU, @ Carthage, vs North Central
Augustana - @ North Central, @ IWU
Elmhurst - @ North Park, @ North Central, vs Carthage
North Central - vs Augustana, vs Elmhurst, @ Wheaton
Carthage - vs Millikin, vs Wheaton, @ Elmhurst
Illinois Wesleyan - vs Wheaton, @ Millikin, vs Augustana
Millikin - @ Carthage, vs IWU, @ North Park
North Park - vs Elmhurst, vs Millikin

One of those 8-6 tie-breaker scenarios actually involves Augustana. If Augie loses at North Central tonight and picks up loss #5, and IWU wins out (including a home win vs Augie), both would be 8-6. In that scenario, IWU would most likely own the tie-breaker via a 1-1 record with Wheaton vs Augie's 0-2.

IWU would also have a decent chance to win 8-6 tie-breakers with North Central and Carthage. Still way too many scenarios possible to evaluate in detail, but it is reasonable.The Wheaton @ IWU and Augustana @ North Central games tonight are huge (Elmhurst and Carthage have big games tonight too, but I think they are both big favorites).

If the Titans are going to get it done, it will have to start with defense:

CCIW Opponents Points Per 100 Possessions:

Augie 94.1
Wheaton 97.9
NCC 103.9
Elmhurst 105.1
Millikin 106.4
Carthage 109.2
IWU 112.5
NPU 120.4

Only 0-12 North Park has struggled more defensively this year.

Can the Titans turn the corner with a week to go?? It all starts tonight at the Shirk vs Wheaton.

Duane L. Sampen, 1936 - 2009

Jordan Zimmer's grandfather, Duane Sampen, passed away yesterday morning. Mr. Sampen (Class of 1959) played basketball for the Titans...incidentally with my father, who graduated in 1957.

Last year I traveled to Delavan's state playoff game vs Putnam County to watch IWU recruit Jordan play...along with several CCIW coaches who also made their way to Dee-Mack H.S. that night. I remember meeting Duane Sampen after the game, as all of the coaches wrestled to talk with Jordan. While Coach Giovanine (Augustana) was speaking with him, I asked Mr. Sampen something like, "So where do you think Jordan is going to end up?", looking over at the conversation taking place. He smiled, kind of winked, and said, "He'd look good in green wouldn't he?" The way he said it and the look in his eye said it all. On the way home I told Coach Stein, "I think we're in good shape."

I'm sure I speak for the entire IWU community in extending sympathies to the Sampen and Zimmer families on the loss of one very proud Titan.