Still in it...

In looking at the standings and remaining games, it looks to me like IWU's road to the conference tournament is a little more reasonable than I thought. If the Titans win out, I believe they have a pretty good chance of winning an 8-6 tie-breaker.

Wheaton 8-3
Augustana 8-4
Elmhurst 7-4
North Central 7-4
Carthage 6-5
Illinois Wesleyan 5-6
Millikin 4-7
North Park 0-12

Remaining schedules:

Wheaton - @ IWU, @ Carthage, vs North Central
Augustana - @ North Central, @ IWU
Elmhurst - @ North Park, @ North Central, vs Carthage
North Central - vs Augustana, vs Elmhurst, @ Wheaton
Carthage - vs Millikin, vs Wheaton, @ Elmhurst
Illinois Wesleyan - vs Wheaton, @ Millikin, vs Augustana
Millikin - @ Carthage, vs IWU, @ North Park
North Park - vs Elmhurst, vs Millikin

One of those 8-6 tie-breaker scenarios actually involves Augustana. If Augie loses at North Central tonight and picks up loss #5, and IWU wins out (including a home win vs Augie), both would be 8-6. In that scenario, IWU would most likely own the tie-breaker via a 1-1 record with Wheaton vs Augie's 0-2.

IWU would also have a decent chance to win 8-6 tie-breakers with North Central and Carthage. Still way too many scenarios possible to evaluate in detail, but it is reasonable.The Wheaton @ IWU and Augustana @ North Central games tonight are huge (Elmhurst and Carthage have big games tonight too, but I think they are both big favorites).

If the Titans are going to get it done, it will have to start with defense:

CCIW Opponents Points Per 100 Possessions:

Augie 94.1
Wheaton 97.9
NCC 103.9
Elmhurst 105.1
Millikin 106.4
Carthage 109.2
IWU 112.5
NPU 120.4

Only 0-12 North Park has struggled more defensively this year.

Can the Titans turn the corner with a week to go?? It all starts tonight at the Shirk vs Wheaton.