Thursday, January 03, 2008

Defensive/offensive efficiency




One of the best metrics used to measure "defensive efficiency" is opponents points per possession (OPPP). Per APBRmetrics, possessions are calculated as:

Possessions = .96*(FGA- Off Reb + TO + (.475 * FTA))

Here is how the CCIW stacks up through game of 1/2:

Opponents' Points Per Possession:

Wheaton = 0.90 (752 opp. poss. > 676 opp. pts) - 11 games
Millikin = 0.94 (641 opp. poss. > 602 opp. pts) - 9 games
Augustana = 0.96 (713 opp. poss. > 683 opp. pts) - 11 games
Elmhurst = 0.98 (612 opp. poss. > 598 opp. pts) - 9 games
North Park = 1.01 (686 opp. poss. > 694 opp. pts) - 10 games
Carthage = 1.05 (663 opp. poss. > 693 opp. pts) - 10 games
North Central = 1.11 (708 opp. poss. > 786 opp. pts) - 11 games
Illinois Wesleyan = 1.13 (744 opp. poss. > 844 opp. pts) - 11 games)


This isn't a perfect metric at this point due to the differences in strength of schedules across the league, but it certainly illustrates the achilles heal of the 2007-08 Titans through the non-conference. To earn a 4th place finish, and a spot in the conference tournament, the Titans will have to improve defensively in league play.

On the offensive side, we can also measure points per possession. Taking a look at the league...

Points Per Possession:

North Central = 1.18 (716 poss. > 848 pts) - 11 games
Elmhurst = 1.14 (615 poss. > 701 pts) - 9 games
North Park = 1.11 (687 poss. > 760 pts) - 10 games
Illinois Wesleyan = 1.10 (749 poss. > 823 pts) - 11 games
Augustana = 1.08 (723 poss. > 780 pts) - 11 games
Millikin = 1.08 (638 poss. > 686 pts) - 9 games
Wheaton = 1.06 (737 poss. > 781 pts) - 11 games
Carthage = 1.05 (665 poss. > 696 pts) - 10 games


The Titans look a lot better on the offensive side, and my guess is that the team's best offense is yet to come this year. As the young perimeter players continue to settle in, I think the Titans will keep getting better in this metric.

So nothing we didn't already know, but it helps to see it in black and white. This IWU team has been good offensively overall but has struggled to stop opponents consistently. We'll see what happens in CCIW play.

PS Here are the numbers for #1-ranked Rochester (9-0), just for perspective:

Opponents = 0.89 (565 opp. poss. > 501 opp. pts)
Rochester = 1.15 (566 poss. > 650 pts)

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